
Dollar Index vs. Growth Surprise: Why Strong Data Is Not Automatically USD Bullish Now
For much of the past decade, strong US economic data carried a simple implication for currency markets: buy the dollar. Faster growth, resilient consumption, and

For much of the past decade, strong US economic data carried a simple implication for currency markets: buy the dollar. Faster growth, resilient consumption, and

US Treasury markets have spent much of late 2025 sending a message that differs from the headlines around growth resilience and sticky inflation. The signal

The Russian rouble entered 2025 under heavy policy management, with currency sales playing a central role in stabilizing the exchange rate amid sanctions, restricted capital

The Indian rupee has spent much of 2025 trading inside an unusually tight range against the US dollar, defying bouts of global volatility that have

The US dollar is closing 2025 with its weakest annual performance since 2017, a result that has surprised many traders who entered the year expecting

Recent growth data has surprised on the upside in several economies, creating the impression that global activity is regaining strength. Trade volumes, in particular, have

The Canadian dollar reaching a five month high has drawn renewed attention from currency markets. At first glance, the move appears easy to explain. Energy

Late December often produces foreign exchange price action that feels disconnected from economic reality. Modest data points trigger outsized currency swings, technical levels break with

The US dollar is closing 2025 on track for its weakest annual performance since 2003. This decline has taken shape even as the US economy

The outlook for the US dollar is shifting in ways that are not immediately visible in spot markets or headline interest rate debates. Instead, the