
Near Neutral Fed Non Neutral FX Why Policy Plateau Still Moves Currencies
As 2026 begins, the Federal Reserve appears to be in a familiar position. Policy rates are restrictive but unchanged, inflation is easing but not fully

As 2026 begins, the Federal Reserve appears to be in a familiar position. Policy rates are restrictive but unchanged, inflation is easing but not fully

The US dollar opened 2026 with a modest rebound that appeared encouraging on the surface but restrained beneath it. After one of its weakest annual

The US dollar enters 2026 with confidence that feels stable on the surface but fragile underneath. After a year defined by resilience rather than strength,

Global debt levels entered 2026 already at historic highs, but the problem is no longer the size of debt alone. What has changed is the

Artificial intelligence investment has become one of the most powerful forces shaping corporate spending decisions. While earnings headlines often dominate market attention, the effects of

As global financial conditions transition in 2026, emerging markets face a familiar but uneven challenge: managing external vulnerability in a world where U.S. dollar liquidity

A common assumption in currency markets is that falling yields should weaken the U.S. dollar. When inflation cools and real rates move lower, investors often

The U.S. dollar’s influence on Asia’s currencies is no longer uniform, and that shift is reshaping inflation dynamics across the region. While some Asian economies

As expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts become more firmly embedded in market pricing, many investors assume the dollar should weaken in a straight line.

The U.S. dollar enters early 2026 under a widely held assumption that its strongest phase is already behind it. Many market participants believe slowing inflation,