Few assets confounded expectations in 2025 as much as the U.S. 30 year Treasury bond. Entering the year, consensus assumed that persistent deficits, heavy issuance,
The global debt picture at the end of 2025 reveals a clear divergence that is reshaping macro expectations. Public borrowing continues to expand across many
Global debt levels have been rising for years, but 2025 marked a turning point in how markets and policymakers interpret the cost of carrying that
Government borrowing used to be treated as an operational detail, something handled quietly by debt management offices and absorbed routinely by markets. That view no
Global dollar liquidity rarely announces itself through headlines. Instead, it reveals stress quietly through funding markets, particularly in cross currency basis swaps. These instruments have
Japan’s budget debates often focus on headline spending totals and stimulus priorities, but markets are paying attention to a different line item. Debt service costs,
Global debt figures often make headlines for their sheer size, but headline numbers rarely tell the full story. As debt levels continue to rise across
Public debt levels above 100 percent of GDP have become increasingly common across advanced economies, yet markets have learned to live with the headline number.
The global reserve landscape has been slowly changing, and recent data has reinforced a trend that has been building for years. The share of US
Global debt levels continue to climb as governments, corporations, and households manage the legacy of past stimulus, higher interest costs, and slower growth. Public borrowing
