Oil prices slipped on Thursday as traders weighed increasing global supplies against weaker demand in the United States, signaling persistent softness in the energy market ahead of year-end.
Brent crude futures eased to $63.14 a barrel, down 0.6 percent, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell to $59.13. The modest decline came as investors reacted to signs that inventories are rising faster than expected, amplifying concerns that global production remains too high.
Market analysts noted that OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers continue to increase output even as consumption levels lag behind earlier forecasts. The combination of steady production and lower seasonal demand has kept pressure on prices for a third straight month. John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said traders are “haunted by the best-telegraphed supply glut in history,” pointing to rising stockpiles across major economies.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s top exporter, deepened that sentiment by reducing December selling prices for its crude to Asian buyers, an unusual step that underscores its view of abundant supply in the market. The adjustment follows similar pricing decisions from other regional producers as they compete for market share amid weaker consumption growth.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a weekly crude inventory increase of 5.2 million barrels, bringing total stockpiles to about 421 million barrels. Analysts attributed the rise to reduced refinery activity during seasonal maintenance and a broader slowdown in U.S. fuel demand.
Economists also pointed to global indicators suggesting slower-than-expected consumption. JPMorgan revised its 2025 oil-demand growth estimate to 850,000 barrels per day, slightly below its earlier forecast. Weaker manufacturing output in Europe and soft freight traffic in the United States have limited gains in transport fuel use, reinforcing a cautious market outlook.
Recent sanctions targeting Russian energy companies raised brief concerns about potential supply disruptions, but analysts said the effect has been muted so far. Production levels have held steady, and traders appear skeptical that sanctions will cause sustained losses. Jorge Montepeque, senior analyst at Onyx Capital Group, said investors see “only a modest price impact” and expect global supplies to remain resilient.
Economists at Capital Economics said downward pressure on crude could persist into next year, projecting Brent prices to hover around $60 a barrel by late 2025 and drift lower if production growth continues to outpace demand.
For global policymakers, softer oil prices may ease inflationary pressures, allowing central banks to maintain accommodative stances, but they also highlight persistent weakness in industrial activity and energy consumption.
Traders expect volatility to continue as OPEC+ members adjust output and markets monitor U.S. economic indicators for clues about demand recovery. Unless clear signs of stronger consumption emerge, global benchmarks are likely to remain under pressure heading into the winter months.
